Glucose variability during the early course of acute pancreatitis predicts two-year probability of new-onset diabetes: A prospective longitudinal cohort study

Abstract

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is the largest contributor to diabetes of the exocrine pancreas. However, there is no accurate predictor at the time of hospitalisation for AP to identify individuals at high risk for new-onset diabetes.

Objective: To investigate the accuracy of indices of glucose variability (GV) during the early course of AP in predicting the glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) trajectories during follow-up.

Methods: This was a prospective longitudinal cohort study of patients without diabetes at the time of hospitalisation for AP. Fasting blood glucose was regularly measured over the first 72 h of hospital admission. The study endpoint was the HbA1c trajectories - high-increasing, moderate-stable, normal-stable - over two years of follow-up. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted to investigate the associations between several common GV indices and the HbA1c trajectories, adjusting for covariates (age, sex, and body mass index). A sensitivity analysis constrained to patients with non-necrotising AP was conducted.

Results: A total of 120 consecutive patients were studied. All patients in the high-increasing HbA1c trajectory group had new-onset diabetes at 18 and 24 months of follow-up. Glycaemic lability index had the strongest significant direct association (adjusted odds ratio = 13.69; p = 0.040) with the high-increasing HbA1c trajectory. High admission blood glucose, standard deviation of blood glucose, and average real variability significantly increased the patients' odds of taking the high-increasing HbA1c trajectory by at least two-times. Admission blood glucose, but not the other GV indices, had a significant direct association (adjusted odds ratio = 1.46; p = 0.034) with the moderate-stable HbA1c trajectory. The above findings did not change materially in patients with non-necrotising AP alone.

Conclusions: High GV during the early course of AP gives a prescient warning of worsening HbA1c pattern and new-onset diabetes after hospital discharge. Determining GV during hospitalisation could be a relatively straightforward approach to early identification of individuals at high risk for new-onset diabetes after AP.

Keywords: acute pancreatitis; diabetes; glucose variability; predictors; prospective cohort study.