Simulation of Wheat Response to Future Climate Change Based on Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 Multi-Model Ensemble Projections in the North China Plain

Huizi Bai; Dengpan Xiao; Bin Wang; De Li Liu; Jianzhao Tang

doi:10.3389/fpls.2022.829580

Simulation of Wheat Response to Future Climate Change Based on Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 Multi-Model Ensemble Projections in the North China Plain

Front Plant Sci. 2022 Feb 3:13:829580. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2022.829580. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Huizi Bai¹, Dengpan Xiao^{1

2

3}, Bin Wang⁴, De Li Liu^{4

5}, Jianzhao Tang¹

Affiliations

¹ Engineering Technology Research Center, Geographic Information Development and Application of Hebei, Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China.
² College of Geography Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, China.
³ Hebei Laboratory of Environmental Evolution and Ecological Construction, Shijiazhuang, China.
⁴ NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia.
⁵ Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

Abstract

Global climate change results in more extreme temperature events, which poses a serious threat to wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). Assessing the potential impact of temperature extremes on crop growth and yield is an important prerequisite for exploring crop adaptation measures to deal with changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during wheat sensitive period on grain yield at four representative sites over the NCP using Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model driven by the climate projections from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) during two future periods of 2031-2060 (2040S) and 2071-2100 (2080S) under societal development pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. We found that extreme temperature stress had significantly negative impacts on wheat yield. However, increased rainfall and the elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration could partly compensate for the yield loss caused by extreme temperature events. Under future climate scenarios, the risk of exposure to heat stress around flowering had no great change but frost risk in spring increased slightly mainly due to warming climate accelerating wheat development and advancing the flowering time to a cooler period of growing season. Wheat yield loss caused by heat and frost stress increased by -0.6 to 4.2 and 1.9-12.8% under SSP585_2080S, respectively. We also found that late sowing and selecting cultivars with a long vegetative growth phase (VGP) could significantly compensate for the negative impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in the south of NCP. However, selecting heat resistant cultivars in the north NCP and both heat and frost resistant cultivars in the central NCP may be a more effective way to alleviate the negative effect of extreme temperature on wheat yields. Our findings showed that not only heat risk should be concerned under climate warming, but also frost risk should not be ignored.

Keywords: APSIM; CMIP6; climate change; frost stress; heat stress; wheat yield.