Improvement of downscaled ozone concentrations from the transnational scale to the kilometric scale: Need, interest and new insights

Abstract

Background: Ground-level ozone is a major public health issue worldwide. An accurate assessment of ozone exposure is necessary. Modeling tools have been developed to tackle this issue in large areas. However, these models could present inaccuracies at the local scale.

Objectives: The objective of this study was i) to assess whether O₃ concentrations estimated by transnational modeling at the kilometric scale (9 km²) could be improved, ii) to propose a potential correction of these downscaled ozone concentrations and iii) to evaluate the efficiency and applicability of such a correction.

Method: The present work was carried out in three phases. First, the performance of a transnational modeling platform (PREV'EST) was assessed at 6 geographic points by comparison with data from 6 air quality monitoring stations. Performance indicators were used for this purpose (MBE (mean bias error), MAE (mean absolute error), RMSE (root mean square error), r (Pearson correlation coefficient), and target plots). Second, several corrections were developed using MARS (multivariate adaptive regression splines) and integrating different sets of variables (mean temperature, relative humidity, rainfall amount, wind speed, elevation, and date). Their performance was evaluated. Third, external validation of the corrections was conducted using the data from six additional air quality monitoring stations.

Results: The uncorrected PREV'EST model presented a lack of exactitude and precision. These concentrations did not reproduce the interday variability of the measurements, leading to a lack of temporal contrast in exposure data. For the best performance enhancement, the correction applied improved MBE, MAE, RMSE and r from 14.67, 19.23, 23.18 and 0.67 to 0.00, 8.00, 10.19 and 0.91, respectively. External validation confirmed the efficiency of the corrections at the regional scale.

Conclusions: We propose a validated and efficient methodology integrating local environmental variables. The methodology is adaptable according to the context, needs and data available.

Keywords: Improvement; MARS model; Modeling; Ozone; Performance.