Integrative artificial intelligence models for Australian coastal sediment lead prediction: An investigation of in-situ measurements and meteorological parameters effects

Abstract

Heavy metals (HMs) such as Lead (Pb) have played a vital role in increasing the sediments of the Australian bay's ecosystem. Several meteorological parameters (i.e., minimum, maximum and average temperature (T_min, T_max and T_avg^oC), rainfall (R_n mm) and their interactions with the other batch HMs, are hypothesized to have high impact for the decision-making strategies to minimize the impacts of Pb. Three feature selection (FS) algorithms namely the Boruta method, genetic algorithm (GA) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were investigated to select the highly important predictors for Pb concentration in the coastal bay sediments of Australia. These FS algorithms were statistically evaluated using principal component analysis (PCA) Biplot along with the correlation metrics describing the statistical characteristics that exist in the input and output parameter space of the models. To ensure a high accuracy attained by the applied predictive artificial intelligence (AI) models i.e., XGBoost, support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF), an auto-hyper-parameter tuning process using a Grid-search approach was also implemented. Cu, Ni, Ce, and Fe were selected by all the three applied FS algorithms whereas the T_avg and R_n inputs remained the essential parameters identified by GA and Boruta. The order of the FS outcome was XGBoost > GA > Boruta based on the applied statistical examination and the PCA Biplot results and the order of applied AI predictive models was XGBoost-SVM > GA-SVM > Boruta-SVM, where the SVM model remained at the top performance among the other statistical metrics. Based on the Taylor diagram for model evaluation, the RF model was reflected only marginally different so overall, the proposed integrative AI model provided an evidence a robust and reliable predictive technique used for coastal sediment Pb prediction.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence; Feature selection algorithm; Lead prediction; Meteorological parameters; Sediment heavy metals.