Machine learning exhibited excellent advantages in the performance simulation and prediction of free water surface constructed wetlands

Abstract

Optimizing the design and operation parameters of free water surface constructed wetlands (FWS CWs) in runoff regulation and wastewater treatment is necessary to improve the comprehensive performance. In this study, nine machine learning (ML) algorithms were successfully developed to optimize the parameter combinations for FWS CWs. The scale effect of surface area on wetland performance was determined based on consistently smaller predictions (-6.2% to -28.9%) of the nine well-established ML algorithms. The models most suitable for FWS CW performance simulation and prediction were random forest and extra trees algorithms because of their high R² values (0.818 in both) with the training set and low mean absolute relative errors (4.7% and 3.8%, respectively) with the test set. Results from feature analysis of the six tree-based algorithms emphasized the importance of water depth and layout of inlet and outlet, and revealed the negligible effect of the aspect ratio. Feature importance and partial dependence analysis enhanced the interpretability of the tree-based algorithms. The proposed ML algorithms enabled the implementation of an extended scenario at a low cost in real time. Therefore, ML algorithms are suitable for expressing the complex and uncertain effects of the design and operation parameters on the performance of FWS CWs. Acquiring datasets consisting of more extensive, uniform, and unbiased parameter combinations is crucial for developing more robust and practical ML algorithms for the optimal design of FWS CWs.

Keywords: Algorithm comparison; Feature importance; Interpretability; Scenario prediction; Wetland performance.