Decomposition and prediction of China's carbon emission intensity towards carbon neutrality: From perspectives of national, regional and sectoral level

Hao Chen; Shaozhou Qi; Xiujie Tan

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153839

Decomposition and prediction of China's carbon emission intensity towards carbon neutrality: From perspectives of national, regional and sectoral level

Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jun 15:825:153839. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153839. Epub 2022 Feb 15.

Authors

Hao Chen¹, Shaozhou Qi², Xiujie Tan³

Affiliations

¹ Climate Change and Energy Economics Study Center, Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; European Study Center of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
² Climate Change and Energy Economics Study Center, Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; European Study Center of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Center of Hubei Cooperative Innovation for Emissions Trading System, School of Low Carbon Economics, Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan 430205, China. Electronic address: cneuus@126.com.
³ Institute for International Studies, CICTSMR, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.

PMID: 35176383
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153839

Abstract

China has actively participated in global climate governance and put forward its ambitious carbon neutrality target. The formulation of scientific plans has become the primary concern of the policy makers, especially for the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans (FYP) which are important periods to secure the neutrality pledge and transform the whole economy. Since the carbon emission intensity play a key role in achieving carbon neutrality, it is necessary to summarize and explore the evolution trend of carbon emission intensity as well as its driving factors. Therefore, an integrated decomposition framework is developed to study the carbon emission intensity in the past three FYPs from the national, regional and industrial levels. Furthermore, towards the carbon neutrality target, moderate scenario and advanced scenario are designed to predict the future evolution trend of the carbon emission intensity and driving factors in the 14th and 15th FYPs (2021-2030). The main results are as follows: (1) During the three FYPs, factor substitution is the main force contributing to the decreased carbon emission intensity, but this effect gradually decreased. This indicates that it is an inevitable trend to further promote internal optimization and reform of energy system. (2) The change of energy structure exerts a positive effect on the carbon emission intensity decline, but it is not significant, especially in the industrial sector. (3) With the rich factor endowment, central and eastern regions can reduce carbon emission intensity through factor substitution and industrial structure transformation, while the western region is not. (4) In the future, the role of industrial structure optimization and technology progress will be gradually significant. Finally, our findings provide practical guidance on achieving carbon emission intensity reduction and enlightenments on policymaking.

Keywords: Carbon emission intensity; Index decomposition analysis; Production-theoretical decomposition analysis; Scenario analysis.

MeSH terms

Carbon Dioxide / analysis
Carbon* / analysis
China
Economic Development
Industry*
Technology

Substances

Carbon Dioxide
Carbon