CO2 emissions and debt accumulation are twin threats to sustainable development. To fill the gap that few studies can untangle the reasons behind CO2 emissions from the debt perspective, we illustrate debt can cause CO2 emissions through various channels. We then examined how debt-based drivers impact emission trajectories. We use the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to decompose the emission changes into five factors. We make decomposition analyses between different country groups to identify their respective characteristics. Further, to investigate the potential financial crisis impacts, we consider the full period 2001-2019 and two sub-periods (pre- and post-2008). The results show that the gross domestic product (GDP) is always the biggest contributor to emissions, whose effect on advanced economies saw a bigger decrease after 2008 than that on emerging economies. Debt-GDP is second only to GDP in contributing to emissions. It has a similar impact on emissions before and after 2008 for advanced economies, while it rockets after 2008 for emerging economies. Private debt financing of fossil fuels is the prominent inhibitor for both economies, especially for emerging economies. It has a stronger mitigation impact after 2008 than before for emerging economies, while has the opposite change for advanced economies. Debt structure and fossil CO2 intensity have relatively smaller effects on emissions. The crisis is an opportunity to promote low-carbon development. Since the COVID-19 pandemic is analogous to the 2008 crisis in terms of debt level and emission change, we provide recommendations for emission mitigation in the post-pandemic context.
Keywords: CO2 emissions; LMDI; debt; decomposition.