Local mortality impacts due to future air pollution under climate change scenarios

Vijendra Ingole; Asya Dimitrova; Jon Sampedro; Charfudin Sacoor; Sozinho Acacio; Sanjay Juvekar; Sudipto Roy; Paula Moraga; Xavier Basagaña; Joan Ballester; Josep M Antó; Cathryn Tonne

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153832

Local mortality impacts due to future air pollution under climate change scenarios

Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jun 1:823:153832. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153832. Epub 2022 Feb 11.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, Parc de Salut Mar, Spain; King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering Division, Saudi Arabia.
² Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, Parc de Salut Mar, Spain.
³ Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Sede Building 1, 1st Floor Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Spain.
⁴ Manhiça Health Research Center, Manhiça, Mozambique.
⁵ Vadu Rural Health Program, KEM Hospital Research Centre, Pune, India.
⁶ King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering Division, Saudi Arabia.
⁷ Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, Parc de Salut Mar, Spain. Electronic address: cathryn.tonne@isglobal.org.

PMID: 35151734
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153832

Abstract

The health impacts of global climate change mitigation will affect local populations differently. However, most co-benefits analyses have been done at a global level, with relatively few studies providing local level results. We aimed to quantify the local health impacts due to fine particles (PM_2.5) under the governance arrangements embedded in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs1-5) under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5) in local populations of Mozambique, India, and Spain. We simulated the SSP-RCP scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was linked to the TM5-FASST model to estimate PM_2.5 levels. PM_2.5 levels were calibrated with local measurements. We used comparative risk assessment methods to estimate attributable premature deaths due to PM_2.5 linking local population and mortality data with PM_2.5-mortality relationships from the literature, and incorporating population projections under the SSPs. PM_2.5 attributable burdens in 2050 differed across SSP-RCP scenarios, and sensitivity of results across scenarios varied across populations. Future attributable mortality burden of PM_2.5 was highly sensitive to assumptions about how populations will change according to SSP. SSPs reflecting high challenges for adaptation (SSPs 3 and 4) consistently resulted in the highest PM_2.5 attributable burdens mid-century. Our analysis of local PM_2.5 attributable premature deaths under SSP-RCP scenarios in three local populations highlights the importance of both socioeconomic development and climate policy in reducing the health burden from air pollution. Sensitivity of future PM_2.5 mortality burden to SSPs was particularly evident in low- and middle- income country settings due either to high air pollution levels or dynamic populations.

Keywords: Air pollution; Climate change mitigation; Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems; Mortality; Shared socioeconomic pathways.

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants* / analysis
Air Pollution* / analysis
Climate Change
Mortality, Premature
Particulate Matter / analysis

Substances

Air Pollutants
Particulate Matter