Accuracy of SAGES, ASGE, and ESGE criteria in predicting choledocholithiasis

Abstract

Background: Patients with suspected choledocholithiasis (CDL) are stratified as high-risk (HR), intermediate-risk (IR), and low-risk (LR) according to the guidelines of Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons (SAGES), American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE), and European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE). Although these approaches are invaluable, paucity of validation studies are currently available. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the above risk stratification criteria in predicting CDL.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 280 patients with suspected CDL. All patients were stratified according to above professional societies as HR, IR, and LR, and diagnostic performance was evaluated.

Results: In the HR group, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.70-0.84], 0.75 (95% CI, 0.68-0.81), and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68-0.81) for SAGES, ASGE, and ESGE criteria, respectively. The diagnostic accuracy were 78.93% (81.13% sensitivity, 72.06% specificity), 75% (75.47% sensitivity, 73.53% specificity), and 70% (66.04% sensitivity, 82.35% specificity) for SAGES, ASGE, and ESGE criteria, respectively. Regarding the IR group, the diagnostic accuracy were 22.50% (16.98% sensitivity, 39.71% specificity), 25% (24.53% sensitivity, 26.47% specificity), and 30.00% (33.49% sensitivity, 19.12% specificity) for SAGES, ASGE, and ESGE criteria, respectively. The common bile duct stone (CBDS) visualized on imaging has the highest risk for CDL [odds ratio (OR), 13.59 (95% CI, 5.26-35.12)], followed by CBDS plus dilated common bile duct [OR, 13.33 (95% CI, 5.16-34.47)], CBDS plus cholangitis [OR, 13.33 (95% CI, 3.17-56.15)], and CBDS plus total bilirubin level > 1.7 mg/dL [OR, 9.89 (95% CI, 3.47-28.20)].

Conclusions: The current SAGES, ASGE, and ESGE criteria have acceptable diagnostic accuracy for CDL. The patients with visualized CBDS on imaging have the highest risk for CDL.

Keywords: Biliary tract disease; Choledocholithiasis; Common bile duct stone; Diagnostic accuracy; Validation.