We present a model to estimate the bias error of 4D flow magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) velocity measurements. The local instantaneous bias error is defined as the difference between the expectation of the voxel's measured velocity and actual velocity at the voxel center. The model accounts for bias error introduced by the intra-voxel velocity distribution and partial volume (PV) effects. We assess the intra-voxel velocity distribution using a 3D Taylor Series expansion. PV effects and numerical errors are considered using a Richardson extrapolation. The model is applied to synthetic Womersley flow and in vitro and in vivo 4D flow MRI measurements in a cerebral aneurysm. The bias error model is valid for measurements with at least 3.75 voxels across the vessel diameter and signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5. All test cases exceeded this diameter to voxel size ratio with diameters, isotropic voxel sizes, and velocity ranging from 3-15mm, 0.5-1mm, and 0-60cm/s, respectively. The model accurately estimates the bias error in voxels not affected by PV effects. In PV voxels, the bias error is an order of magnitude higher, and the accuracy of the bias error estimation in PV voxels ranges from 67.3% to 108% relative to the actual bias error. The bias error estimated for in vivo measurements increased two-fold at systole compared to diastole in partial volume and non-partial volume voxels, suggesting the bias error varies over the cardiac cycle. This bias error model quantifies 4D flow MRI measurement accuracy and can help plan 4D flow MRI scans.