Economic Assessment of Permafrost Degradation Effects on Healthcare Facilities in the Russian Arctic

B N Porfiriev; D O Eliseev; D A Streletskiy

doi:10.1134/S1019331621060113

Economic Assessment of Permafrost Degradation Effects on Healthcare Facilities in the Russian Arctic

Her Russ Acad Sci. 2021;91(6):677-686. doi: 10.1134/S1019331621060113. Epub 2022 Feb 2.

Authors

B N Porfiriev¹, D O Eliseev^{1

2}, D A Streletskiy^{3

4}

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
² Russian New University (RosNOU), Moscow, Russia.
³ George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia United States.
⁴ Institute of the Earth's Cryosphere, Tyumen Science Center, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Tyumen, Russia.

Abstract

The methodology and results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of the most negative global climate change IPCC scenario (RCP 8.5) representative for the conditions of the Russian Arctic in the form of thawing and degradation of permafrost for healthcare facilities in eight Arctic regions of the Russian Federation are discussed. It is shown that the additional costs associated with these consequences for the maintenance and restoration of healthcare facilities in 2021-2050 may amount to about ₽60 bln, or about ₽2 bln per year (in 2021 prices) at the average rate of permafrost degradation and increase thawing depth, rising to ₽219 bln (₽7.5 bln annually) under the maximum expected damage.

Keywords: Russian Arctic; climate change; degradation; healthcare facilities; permafrost; risks; thawing.

© Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2021, ISSN 1019-3316, Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2021, Vol. 91, No. 6, pp. 677–686. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2021.Russian Text © The Author(s), 2021, published in Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 2021, Vol. 91, No. 12, pp. 1125–1136.