Life expectancy drop in 2020. Estimates based on Human Mortality Database

PLoS One. 2022 Jan 31;17(1):e0262846. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262846. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

In many countries of the world, COVID-19 pandemic has led to exceptional changes in mortality trends. Some studies have tried to quantify the effects of Covid-19 in terms of a reduction in life expectancy at birth in 2020. However, these estimates might need to be updated now that, in most countries, the mortality data for the whole year are available. We used data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF) data series to estimate life expectancy in 2020 for several countries. The changes estimated using these data and the appropriate methodology seem to be more pessimistic than those that have been proposed so far: life expectancy dropped in the Russia by 2.16 years, 1.85 in USA, and 1.27 in England and Wales. The differences among countries are substantial: many countries (e.g. Denmark, Island, Norway, New Zealand, South Korea) saw a rather limited drop in life expectancy or have even seen an increase in life expectancy.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • COVID-19 / mortality*
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Databases, Factual
  • Developed Countries
  • England / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Life Expectancy*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality
  • New Zealand / epidemiology
  • Norway / epidemiology
  • Republic of Korea / epidemiology
  • Russia / epidemiology
  • SARS-CoV-2 / pathogenicity*
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Wales / epidemiology
  • Young Adult

Grants and funding

SM and SC acknowledge support from grant miur–prin 2017 project 20177BR-JXS from Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca.