We previously reported that high thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels are associated with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) progression during active surveillance. However, validation with multicenter, long-term data, and identification of appropriate age or TSH levels are needed. This multicenter retrospective study enrolled PTMC patients under active surveillance with TSH measurements and ultrasonography. The primary outcome was PTMC progression (volume increase ≥50%, size increase ≥3 mm, or new lymph node (LN) metastasis). PTMC progression according to time-weighted average of TSH (TW-TSH) groups was compared using survival analyses in overall patients and each age subgroups (<40, 40-49, 50-59, and ≥60 years). The identification of TW-TSH cutoff point for PTMC progression and trend analysis of PTMC progression rate according to LT4 treatment were also performed. During 1061 person-years of follow-up, 93 of 234 patients (39.7%) showed PTMC progression (90, 17, and 5 patients for volume increase ≥50%, size increase ≥3 mm, and new LN metastasis, respectively). The highest TW-TSH group was the risk factor most strongly associated with PTMC progression (hazard ratio 2.13 (1.24-3.65); P = 0.006), but the impact was significant only in patients aged <40 or 40-49 years (hazard ratio 30.79 (2.90-326.49; P = 0.004), 2.55 (1.00-6.47; P = 0.049)). For patients aged <50 years, TW-TSH cutoff for PTMC progression was 1.74 mU/L, and PTMC progression rates successively increased in the order of effective, no, and ineffective LT4 treatment group (P for trend = 0.034). In young PTMC patients (<50 years), sustained low-normal TSH levels during active surveillance might be helpful to prevent progression.
Keywords: TSH suppression; active surveillance; age; papillary thyroid microcarcinoma; tumor growth.