On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear. The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years, but the challenges are enormous. Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal, particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. The high target values for nuclear, wind, and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations, with solar energy being the exception, suggesting solar's critical role. We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition, followed by more drastic changes after 2030, can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions, thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario. The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China's socio-economic reform, globalization, international collaboration, and development.
2020 年 9 月 22 日,在 COVID-19 全球大流行的背景下,中国宣布了力争于 2030 年前实现碳达峰,2060年前实现碳中和(简称“双碳”目标)。这一碳中和目标通常被认为涵盖了所有人为排放的温室气体。目前,中国的“双碳”规划工作正在全面展开,但脱碳之路尚存在较大不确定性。非化石能源转型的必要性及其对中国和世界的影响,可能比过去40年的改革开放更为深刻,但挑战也十分巨大。对四个代表性模型的碳中和情景的分析表明,实现碳中和的路径存在显著差异。不同情景中对核能、风能和生物能的需求,可能已接近其资源的上限,只有太阳能资源不受限制,表明了太阳能的关键作用。近期实现的太阳能和风能与化石燃料能源的价格平价,为碳中和奠定了基础,但达到碳中和所需的部署规模,受到技术和商业瓶颈的影响。我们建议广泛部署分布式能源系统,以提高供电系统的安全性和灵活性,并在储能、智能电网、分布式太阳能、风能、小型和模块化核能方面采取更积极的行动。碳中和目标要求包括技术、社会政治、经济、外交等诸多方面的要素都在短时间内朝着正确的方向发展,。因此未来需要持续的国际合作和有利的国际经济和政治环境,助力中国“碳中和”目标的如期实现。.
Keywords: carbon dioxide reductions; carbon neutral; distributed energy system; energy system transformation; model projections.
© Institute of Atmospheric Physics/Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022.