Health risks and economic losses from cold spells in China

Qinghua Sun; Zhiying Sun; Chen Chen; Meilin Yan; Yu Zhong; Zihao Huang; Lihua He; Tiantian Li

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153478

Health risks and economic losses from cold spells in China

Sci Total Environ. 2022 May 15:821:153478. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153478. Epub 2022 Jan 29.

Authors

Qinghua Sun¹, Zhiying Sun², Chen Chen³, Meilin Yan⁴, Yu Zhong³, Zihao Huang³, Lihua He⁵, Tiantian Li⁶

Affiliations

¹ Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China; China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
² China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China.
³ China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
⁴ School of Ecology and Environment, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing, China.
⁵ Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China. Electronic address: alihe@bjmu.edu.cn.
⁶ China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China. Electronic address: litiantian@nieh.chinacdc.cn.

PMID: 35093380
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153478

Abstract

Background: Cold significantly increases the risk of mortality. However, the health risks associated with cold spells, persistent and extreme cold temperature events, have yet to be investigated in detail.

Methods: Meteorological and mortality data was collated from 280 counties in China from 2013 through 2019. GLM (Generalized Linear Models) was used to calculate county-level exposure-response relationships for nine different cold spell definitions. Next, we estimated the exposure-response associations between cold spells and mortality in national, Southern, and Northern China. Based on exposure-response relationships, along with the population and mortality data, we then calculated the number of excess deaths due to the cold spell of 2839 counties across China in 2018. Then, we calculated the loss of VSL (value of a statistical life) in each province.

Results: We identified that P5day7 was the cold spell definition that was associated with the highest health in China. Compared with non-cold spell days, the risk of non-accidental mortality, circulatory mortality, and respiratory mortality, on cold spell days increased by 17.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.8%, 19.0%), 20.8% (95%CI: 18.8%, 23.0%), and 22.7% (95%CI: 19.5%, 25.9%) respectively at lag 7 day in the South. In the North, the risk increased by 13.0% (95% CI: 11.0%, 15.0%), 13.8% (95% CI: 11.4%, 16.2%), and 21.0% (95% CI: 16.6%, 25.6%), respectively. The number of related deaths in China were 57,783, 29,827, and 10,922. The corresponding VSLs were 229,195, 118,322, and 43,315 million CNY (Chinese Yuan), thus accounting for 0.25%, 0.13%, and 0.05% of national GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

Conclusion: Cold spells have caused a severe epidemiological and economic burden in China. South China should pay more attention to the health risks associated with cold spells.

Keywords: Cold spell; Disease burden; Health risk; Mortality; VSL.

MeSH terms

Asian People*
China / epidemiology
Cold Temperature*
Humans
Linear Models
Mortality
Temperature