Asymmetric Relationship between Ambient Air Temperature and Incidence of COVID-19 in the Human Population

Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2022 Jan 28;106(3):877-885. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.21-0328.

Abstract

The complexity of transmission of COVID-19 in the human population cannot be overstated. Although major transmission routes of COVID-19 remain as human-to-human interactions, understanding the possible role of climatic and weather processes in accelerating such interactions is still a challenge. The majority of studies on the transmission of this disease have suggested a positive association between a decrease in ambient air temperature and an increase in human cases. Using data from 19 early epicenters, we show that the relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and temperature is a complex function of prevailing climatic conditions influencing human behavior that govern virus transmission dynamics. We note that under a dry (low-moisture) environment, notably at dew point temperatures below 0°C, the incidence of the disease was highest. Prevalence of the virus in the human population, when ambient air temperatures were higher than 24°C or lower than 17°C, was hypothesized to be a function of the interaction between humans and the built or ambient environment. An ambient air temperature range of 17 to 24°C was identified, within which virus transmission appears to decrease, leading to a reduction in COVID-19 human cases.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Temperature
  • Weather