Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data

Nat Commun. 2022 Jan 27;13(1):554. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-28170-6.

Abstract

We aim to identify those measures that effectively control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austrian schools. Using cluster tracing data we calibrate an agent-based epidemiological model and consider situations where the B1.617.2 (delta) virus strain is dominant and parts of the population are vaccinated to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as room ventilation, reduction of class size, wearing of masks during lessons, vaccinations, and school entry testing by SARS-CoV2-antigen tests. In the data we find that 40% of all clusters involved no more than two cases, and 3% of the clusters only had more than 20 cases. The model shows that combinations of NPIs together with vaccinations are necessary to allow for a controlled opening of schools under sustained community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. For plausible vaccination rates, primary (secondary) schools require a combination of at least two (three) of the above NPIs.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Austria / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control*
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • COVID-19 Vaccines / immunology
  • Child
  • Contact Tracing
  • Disease Hotspot
  • Humans
  • Masks
  • Primary Prevention / methods*
  • Quarantine
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Schools / statistics & numerical data
  • Vaccination / statistics & numerical data*
  • Ventilation

Substances

  • COVID-19 Vaccines

Supplementary concepts

  • SARS-CoV-2 variants