Global assessment of the distribution and conservation status of a key medicinal plant (Artemisia annua L.): The roles of climate and anthropogenic activities

Abstract

As a medicinal plant, Artemisia annua L. is the main source of artemisinin in malaria drugs, but the lack of understanding of its distribution, environmental conditions and protection status limits the mass acquisition of artemisinin. Therefore, we used the ensemble forecast method to model the current and future global distribution areas of A. annua, evaluated the changes in suitable distribution areas on each continent under impacts of human activities and climate change, and its protection status on each continent in the corresponding period. The results showed that the main distribution areas of A. annua were concentrated in mid-latitudes in western and central Europe, southeastern Asia, southeastern North America and southeastern South America. Under the current climate scenario, human modifications have greatly reduced the suitable distribution area of A. annua, which was projected to expand inland with climate change and human socioeconomic impacts of CMIP6 in the future, but the effects of increasing temperature were different in different periods. Among all continents, the suitable distribution area in Europe was the most affected. However, at present and in the future, A. annua needs high priority protection on all continents. Asia and Europe have slightly better protection status scores than other continents, but the protection status scores of all continents are still very low. Our findings can be useful to guide development of protective measures for medicinal plants such as A. annua to further support drug production and disease treatment.

Keywords: Artemisia annua L.; Biodiversity conservation; CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in phase 6); Climate change; Human modification.