Evaluation of soccer team defense based on prediction models of ball recovery and being attacked: A pilot study

PLoS One. 2022 Jan 27;17(1):e0263051. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263051. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

With the development of measurement technology, data on the movements of actual games in various sports can be obtained and used for planning and evaluating the tactics and strategy. Defense in team sports is generally difficult to be evaluated because of the lack of statistical data. Conventional evaluation methods based on predictions of scores are considered unreliable because they predict rare events throughout the game. Besides, it is difficult to evaluate various plays leading up to a score. In this study, we propose a method to evaluate team defense from a comprehensive perspective related to team performance by predicting ball recovery and being attacked, which occur more frequently than goals, using player actions and positional data of all players and the ball. Using data from 45 soccer matches, we examined the relationship between the proposed index and team performance in actual matches and throughout a season. Results show that the proposed classifiers predicted the true events (mean F1 score > 0.483) better than the existing classifiers which were based on rare events or goals (mean F1 score < 0.201). Also, the proposed index had a moderate correlation with the long-term outcomes of the season (r = 0.397). These results suggest that the proposed index might be a more reliable indicator rather than winning or losing with the inclusion of accidental factors.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Pilot Projects
  • Soccer*

Grants and funding

This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI (Grant Numbers 19H04941, 20H04075, 20H04087) and JST Presto (Grant Number JPMJPR20CA), received by KF. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.