Background: Artificial intelligence can support clinical decisions by predictive modeling. Using patient-specific characteristics, models may predict the course of clinical parameters, thus guiding monitoring approaches for the individual patient. Here, we present prediction models for inflammation and for the course of renal function and hemoglobin (Hb) in renal cell carcinoma patients after (cryo)surgery.
Methods: Using random forest machine learning in a longitudinal value-based healthcare data set (n = 86) of renal cell carcinoma patients, prediction models were established and optimized using random and grid searches. Data were split into a training and test set in a 70:30 ratio. Inflammation was predicted for a single timepoint, whereas for renal function estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and Hb time course prediction was performed.
Results: Whereas the last Hb and eGFR values before (cryo)surgery were the main basis for the course of Hb and renal function, age and several time frame features also contributed significantly. For eGFR, the type of (cryo)surgery was also a main predicting feature, and for Hb, tumor location, and body mass index were important predictors. With regard to prediction of inflammation no feature was markedly prominent. Inflammation prediction was based on a combination of patient characteristics, physiological parameters, and time frame features.
Conclusions: This study provided interesting insights into factors influencing complications and recovery in individual renal cell carcinoma patients. The established prediction models provide the basis for development of clinical decision support tools for selection and timing of laboratory analyses after (cryo)surgery, thus contributing to quality and efficiency of care.
Keywords: machine learning; prediction; random forest model; renal cell carcinoma; value-based healthcare.
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