Practical recommendations for implementing a Bayesian adaptive phase I design during a pandemic

BMC Med Res Methodol. 2022 Jan 20;22(1):25. doi: 10.1186/s12874-022-01512-0.

Abstract

Background: Modern designs for dose-finding studies (e.g., model-based designs such as continual reassessment method) have been shown to substantially improve the ability to determine a suitable dose for efficacy testing when compared to traditional designs such as the 3 + 3 design. However, implementing such designs requires time and specialist knowledge.

Methods: We present a practical approach to developing a model-based design to help support uptake of these methods; in particular, we lay out how to derive the necessary parameters and who should input, and when, to these decisions. Designing a model-based, dose-finding trial is demonstrated using a treatment within the AGILE platform trial, a phase I/II adaptive design for novel COVID-19 treatments.

Results: We present discussion of the practical delivery of AGILE, covering what information was found to support principled decision making by the Safety Review Committee, and what could be contained within a statistical analysis plan. We also discuss additional challenges we encountered in the study and discuss more generally what (unplanned) adaptations may be acceptable (or not) in studies using model-based designs.

Conclusions: This example demonstrates both how to design and deliver an adaptive dose-finding trial in order to support uptake of these methods.

Keywords: Adaptive design; Bayesian; Dose escalation; Phase I.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem
  • COVID-19*
  • Dose-Response Relationship, Drug
  • Humans
  • Maximum Tolerated Dose
  • Pandemics*
  • Research Design
  • SARS-CoV-2