Consumption-based CO2 emissions accounting and scenario simulation in Asia and the Pacific region

Abstract

This study uses a consumer-based accounting approach to evaluate the CO₂ emission factors of 17 countries in Asia and the Pacific region by including all emissions in the supply chain from commodity location to final consumption location in country consumption patterns. In addition, the number of emissions connected with each country's consumption of products and services in Asia and the Pacific region has received little attention. This study contributes to understanding the effects of countries' consumption of products and services on carbon emission peaks and formulates efficient carbon mitigation plans for governments and decision-makers. Accelerating economic growth and industrialization have posed significant challenges to global carbon mitigation efforts and climate change responses. The Monte Carlo simulation technique was used to create a dynamic scenario simulation model to investigate possible future peaks in the carbon emissions of countries in Asia and the Pacific region while taking into account factor uncertainties. The results show that total consumption-based CO₂ emissions are remarkable in three Asian countries, including China (387,451.95 metric tons Mt CO₂), Japan (185,259.60 Mt CO₂), and India (100,720.46 Mt CO₂). In South Korea, Brunei, and Taiwan, annual consumption emissions are 1.77, 1.62, and 1.49 tons of CO₂ per person, respectively. In terms of final consumption, the household sector is the most noteworthy contributor to consumption-based emissions, accounting for 27-56%. The household sector probably peaks at 19.7 Gt CO₂ as per the dynamic scenario simulation. For the three other types of final demand, government expenditure will possibly reach a maximum of 44.0 Gt CO₂ in the next 30 years, while capital formation will probably reach its highest emission level at 149.5 Gt CO₂.

Keywords: Carbon emission peak; Carbon intensity; Consumption-based CO2 emissions; Consumption-based accounting approach; Embodied emissions; Input–output analysis; Monte Carlo simulation.