Climatic warming is assumed to expand the geographic range of insect pests whose distribution is mainly constrained by low temperatures. This is the case of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), which is one of the main conifer defoliators in the Mediterranean Basin. Warmer winters may lead to a northward/upward expansion of this insect, as short-term studies have shown. However, no long-term data, i.e. spanning at least one century, has been used to examine these projections. We test the hypotheses that climatic warming (i) has caused an upward shift of the pine processionary moth, and (ii) has increased the frequency of severe defoliations. We used dendrochronological methods to reconstruct defoliations over the period 1900-2006 in 14 sites spanning a wide altitudinal range (1070-1675 m) in Teruel, eastern Spain. We built local ring-width chronologies for four co-occurring pine species with different degree of susceptibility against the moth defoliations, from highly suitable or palatable species (Pinus nigra) to moderately (Pinus sylvestris, Pinus halepensis) or rarely defoliated species (Pinus pinaster). We validated the tree-ring reconstructions of outbreaks using a field record of stand defoliations spanning the period 1971-2006. Outbreaks in the most affected P. nigra stands corresponded to abrupt one- to two-year growth reductions (70-90% growth loss). Reconstructed outbreaks occurred on average every 9-14 years. The growth memory of outbreaks was weaker but lasted longer (1-6 years) than that due to droughts (1-3 years). Neither an upward expansion nor an increase in outbreak frequency was observed. Severe PPM defoliations did not increase as climate warmed, rather they were positively related to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation.
Keywords: Dendroentomology; Iberian system; Outbreak; Pinus nigra; Thaumetopoea pityocampa.
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