Realizing ambitions: A framework for iteratively assessing and communicating national decarbonization progress

Chuan Zhang; Honghua Yang; Yunlong Zhao; Linwei Ma; Eric D Larson; Chris Greig

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2021.103695

Realizing ambitions: A framework for iteratively assessing and communicating national decarbonization progress

iScience. 2021 Dec 25;25(1):103695. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.103695. eCollection 2022 Jan 21.

Authors

Chuan Zhang¹, Honghua Yang², Yunlong Zhao², Linwei Ma², Eric D Larson¹, Chris Greig¹

Affiliations

¹ Energy Systems Analysis Group, Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
² State Key Laboratory of Power Systems, Department of Energy and Power Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.

Abstract

A growing number of governments are pledging to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. Despite such ambitions, realized emissions reductions continue to fall alarmingly short of modeled energy transition pathways for achieving net-zero. This gap is largely a result of the difficulty of realistically modeling all the techno-economic and sociopolitical capabilities that are required to deliver actual emissions reductions. This limitation of models suggests the need for an energy-systems analytical framework that goes well beyond energy-system modeling in order to close the gap between ambition and reality. Toward that end, we propose the Emissions-Sustainability-Governance-Operation (ESGO) framework for structured assessment and transparent communication of national capabilities and realization. We illustrate the critical role of energy modeling in ESGO using recent net-zero modeling studies for the world's two largest emitters, China and the United States. This illustration leads to recommendations for improvements to energy-system modeling to enable more productive ESGO implementation.

Keywords: Energy policy; Energy resources; Energy systems.

Publication types

Review