Development and validation of a novel risk score to predict 5-year mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction in China: a retrospective study

Yan Tang; Yuanyuan Bai; Yuanyuan Chen; Xuejing Sun; Yunmin Shi; Tian He; Mengqing Jiang; Yujie Wang; Mingxing Wu; Zhiliu Peng; Suzhen Liu; Weihong Jiang; Yao Lu; Hong Yuan; Jingjing Cai

doi:10.7717/peerj.12652

Development and validation of a novel risk score to predict 5-year mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction in China: a retrospective study

PeerJ. 2022 Jan 4:9:e12652. doi: 10.7717/peerj.12652. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Yan Tang^#¹, Yuanyuan Bai^#¹, Yuanyuan Chen¹, Xuejing Sun¹, Yunmin Shi¹, Tian He¹, Mengqing Jiang¹, Yujie Wang¹, Mingxing Wu², Zhiliu Peng², Suzhen Liu¹, Weihong Jiang¹, Yao Lu³, Hong Yuan^{1

3}, Jingjing Cai^{1

3}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Cardiology, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
² Department of Cardiology, Xiangtan Central Hospital, Xiangtan, Hunan, China.
³ Center of Clinical Pharmacology, The Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

Background: The disease burden from ischaemic heart disease remains heavy in the Chinese population. Traditional risk scores for estimating long-term mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been developed without sufficiently considering advances in interventional procedures and medication. The goal of this study was to develop a risk score comprising clinical parameters and intervention advances at hospital admission to assess 5-year mortality in AMI patients in a Chinese population.

Methods: We performed a retrospective observational study on 2,722 AMI patients between January 2013 and December 2017. Of these patients, 1,471 patients from Changsha city, Hunan Province, China were assigned to the development cohort, and 1,251 patients from Xiangtan city, Hunan Province, China, were assigned to the validation cohort. Forty-five candidate variables assessed at admission were screened using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, stepwise backward regression, and Cox regression methods to construct the C2ABS2-GLPK score, which was graded and stratified using a nomogram and X-tile. The score was internally and externally validated. The C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to assess discrimination and calibration, respectively.

Results: From the 45 candidate variables obtained at admission, 10 potential predictors, namely, including Creatinine, experience of Cardiac arrest, Age, N-terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide, a history of Stroke, Statins therapy, fasting blood Glucose, Left ventricular end-diastolic diameter, Percutaneous coronary intervention and Killip classification were identified as having a close association with 5-year mortality in patients with AMI and collectively termed the C2ABS2-GLPK score. The score had good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.811, 95% confidence intervals (CI) [0.786-0.836]) and calibration (calibration slope = 0.988) in the development cohort. In the external validation cohort, the score performed well in both discrimination (C-statistic = 0.787, 95% CI [0.756-0.818]) and calibration (calibration slope = 0.976). The patients were stratified into low- (≤148), medium- (149 to 218) and high-risk (≥219) categories according to the C2ABS2-GLPK score. The predictive performance of the score was also validated in all subpopulations of both cohorts.

Conclusion: The C2ABS2-GLPK score is a Chinese population-based risk assessment tool to predict 5-year mortality in AMI patients based on 10 variables that are routinely assessed at admission. This score can assist physicians in stratifying high-risk patients and optimizing emergency medical interventions to improve long-term survival in patients with AMI.

Keywords: Acute myocardial infarction; Mortality; Risk assessment; Risk score.

Grants and funding

This work was supported by Key Research and Development Plan of Hunan Province (No. S2021GCZDYF1348); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81870171; No. 81800393; No. 81770403; No. 81974054); the National Key Research and Development Projects (No. 2019YFF0216300; No. 2019YFF0216305); the National Key Research and Development Projects (No. 2018YFC1311300). There was no additional external funding received for this study. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.