Application of three prediction models in pesticide poisoning

Abstract

To establish a reasonable prediction model of pesticide poisoning and predict the future trend of pesticide poisoning in Jiangsu Province, so as to provide the basis for rational allocation of public health resources and formulation of prevention and control strategies, the number of pesticide poisoning in Jiangsu province from 2006 to 2020 was collected. Grey model (GM(1,1)) model, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) model and exponential smoothing model were used for prediction and comparative analysis. Finally, the model with the best fitting effect was selected. The average relative errors of ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)₁₂ model, Holt-Winters multiplicative model and GM(1,1) were 0.096, 0.058 and 0.274 separately. The fitting effect of GM model is the worst, while the fitting effect of ARIMA(0,1,1) (0,1,0)₁₂ model and Holt-Winters multiplication model is relatively good, which can be basically used for prediction. Holt-Winters multiplicative model has the best fitting effect and the highest accuracy in predicting the number of pesticide poisoning. The numbers of pesticide poisonings in the next 3 years are 454, 410 and 368, with a total of 1232, according to the Holt-Winters multiplicative model. Through the prediction of the number of pesticide poisoning in the next 3 years, this paper also provides a basis for the formulation of pesticide-related policies in the future.

Keywords: Pesticide poisoning; Pesticides; Prediction models.