North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

Shubhi Sharma; Robert Andrus; Yves Bergeron; Michal Bogdziewicz; Don C Bragg; Dale Brockway; Natalie L Cleavitt; Benoit Courbaud; Adrian J Das; Michael Dietze; Timothy J Fahey; Jerry F Franklin; Gregory S Gilbert; Cathryn H Greenberg; Qinfeng Guo; Janneke Hille Ris Lambers; Ines Ibanez; Jill F Johnstone; Christopher L Kilner; Johannes M H Knops; Walter D Koenig; Georges Kunstler; Jalene M LaMontagne; Diana Macias; Emily Moran; Jonathan A Myers; Robert Parmenter; Ian S Pearse; Renata Poulton-Kamakura; Miranda D Redmond; Chantal D Reid; Kyle C Rodman; C Lane Scher; William H Schlesinger; Michael A Steele; Nathan L Stephenson; Jennifer J Swenson; Margaret Swift; Thomas T Veblen; Amy V Whipple; Thomas G Whitham; Andreas P Wion; Christopher W Woodall; Roman Zlotin; James S Clark

doi:10.1073/pnas.2116691118

North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Jan 18;119(3):e2116691118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2116691118.

Authors

Shubhi Sharma¹, Robert Andrus², Yves Bergeron³, Michal Bogdziewicz⁴, Don C Bragg⁵, Dale Brockway⁶, Natalie L Cleavitt⁷, Benoit Courbaud⁸, Adrian J Das⁹, Michael Dietze¹⁰, Timothy J Fahey⁷, Jerry F Franklin¹¹, Gregory S Gilbert¹², Cathryn H Greenberg¹³, Qinfeng Guo¹⁴, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers¹⁵, Ines Ibanez¹⁶, Jill F Johnstone¹⁷, Christopher L Kilner¹, Johannes M H Knops¹⁸, Walter D Koenig¹⁹, Georges Kunstler⁸, Jalene M LaMontagne²⁰, Diana Macias²¹, Emily Moran²², Jonathan A Myers²³, Robert Parmenter²⁴, Ian S Pearse²⁵, Renata Poulton-Kamakura¹, Miranda D Redmond²⁶, Chantal D Reid¹, Kyle C Rodman²⁷, C Lane Scher¹, William H Schlesinger¹, Michael A Steele²⁸, Nathan L Stephenson⁹, Jennifer J Swenson¹, Margaret Swift¹, Thomas T Veblen², Amy V Whipple²⁹, Thomas G Whitham²⁹, Andreas P Wion²⁶, Christopher W Woodall³⁰, Roman Zlotin^{31

32}, James S Clark^{33

8}

Affiliations

¹ Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708.
² Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309.
³ Forest Research Institute, University of Quebec in Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, QC J9X 5E4, Canada.
⁴ Department of Systematic Zoology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, 61-614 Poznan, Poland.
⁵ Southern Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Monticello, AR 71656.
⁶ Southern Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Auburn, AL 36849.
⁷ Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853.
⁸ Universite Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire EcoSystemes et Societes En Montagne, Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation, et Environnement, 38402 St. Martin-d'Heres, France.
⁹ Western Ecological Research Center, US Geological Survey, Three Rivers, CA 93271.
¹⁰ Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215.
¹¹ Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
¹² Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064.
¹³ Bent Creek Experimental Forest, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Asheville, NC 28801.
¹⁴ Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709.
¹⁵ Department of Environmental Systems Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zurich, Zurich 8092, Switzerland.
¹⁶ School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109.
¹⁷ Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99700.
¹⁸ Health and Environmental Sciences Department, Xian Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou 215123, China.
¹⁹ Hastings Reservation, University of California Berkeley, Carmel Valley, CA 93924.
²⁰ Department of Biological Sciences, DePaul University, Chicago, IL 60614.
²¹ Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131.
²² School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, CA 95343.
²³ Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63130.
²⁴ Valles Caldera National Preserve, National Park Service, Jemez Springs, NM 87025.
²⁵ Fort Collins Science Center, US Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO 80526.
²⁶ Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523.
²⁷ Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706.
²⁸ Department of Biology, Wilkes University, Wilkes-Barre, PA 18766.
²⁹ Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011.
³⁰ Forest Inventory and Analysis, US Forest Service, Durham, NH 03824.
³¹ Geography Department, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405.
³² Russian and East European Institute, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405.
³³ Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708; jimclark@duke.edu.

Abstract

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

Keywords: climate change; forest regeneration; seed production; tree migration.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Climate Change*
Ecosystem
Fertility / physiology
Geography
North America
Trees / physiology*
Uncertainty