Future implications of COVID-19 through Mathematical modeling

Muhammad Zamir; Fawad Nadeem; Manar A Alqudah; Thabet Abdeljawad

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.105097

Future implications of COVID-19 through Mathematical modeling

Results Phys. 2022 Feb:33:105097. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.105097. Epub 2021 Dec 25.

Authors

Muhammad Zamir¹, Fawad Nadeem¹, Manar A Alqudah², Thabet Abdeljawad^{3

4}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, University of Science and Technology, Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
² Department Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, Princess Nourah Bint, Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia.
³ Department of Mathematics and Sciences, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
⁴ Department of Medical Research, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan.

Abstract

COVID-19 is a pandemic respiratory illness. The disease spreads from human to human and is caused by a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we formulate a mathematical model of COVID-19 and discuss the disease free state and endemic equilibrium of the model. Based on the sensitivity indexes of the parameters, control strategies are designed. The strategies reduce the densities of the infected classes but do not satisfy the criteria/threshold condition of the global stability of disease free equilibrium. On the other hand, the endemic equilibrium of the disease is globally asymptotically stable. Therefore it is concluded that the disease cannot be eradicated with present resources and the human population needs to learn how to live with corona. For validation of the results, numerical simulations are obtained using fourth order Runge-Kutta method.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Mathematical model; Next generation matrix; Novel coronavirus; Sensitivity analysis.