Spatiotemporal dynamics drive synergism of land use and climatic extreme events in insect meta-populations

Abstract

Ecosystems are increasingly threatened by co-occurring stressors associated with anthropogenic global change. Spatial stressor patterns range from local to regional to global, and temporal stressor patterns from discrete to continuous. To date, most multiple stressor studies covered short periods and focused on local effects and interactions. However, it remains largely unknown how stressors with different spatiotemporal patterns interact in their effects over longer periods. In particular, at higher spatial scales, biotic dynamics in ecological networks complicate the understanding of stressor interactions. We used a spatially explicit meta-population model for a generic freshwater insect, parameterized based on traits of the European damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale, to simulate scenarios of discrete climatic extreme events and continuous land use-related stress. Climatic extreme events were modeled as recurring mortality in all patches, whereas land use permanently influenced meta-populations via patch qualities and network connectivity. We found that the risk of discrete climatic extreme events to meta-populations depended strongly on the proportion of land use types, with effects ranging from negligible to extinction. Land use-related stress limited recovery in meta-populations from effects of climatic extreme events, resulting in synergistic stressor interactions. Moreover, the spatial configuration of land use type influenced the combined stressor effects with clustered configurations resulting in lower effects compared to a random configuration. Finally, we found that combined stressor effects can vary with the time point at which they were determined, indicating that inconclusive results in multiple stressor research can partly be due to differences in the time of determination. We conclude that conservation should focus on regional landscape management to mitigate risks on meta-populations from future, intensified extreme climate events. Reducing land use effects, thus improving patch quality and network connectivity, can compensate for effects of additional discrete stressors and, in turn, synergistic interactions.

Keywords: Global change; Meta-population networks; Multiple stressors; Spatiotemporal patterns; Stressor interactions.