This study compares two adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and principal component analysis (PCA)-ANFIS techniques for spatial modeling and forecasting of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) cases in rural districts of Golestan province, Iran. We collected and prepared data on ZCL cases and climatic, topographic, vegetation, and human population factors. By applying the PCA algorithm, the parameters affecting the ZCL incidence were decomposed into principal components (PCs), and their dimensions were reduced. Then, PCs were used to train the ANFIS model. To evaluate the proposed approaches in model assessment phase, we used test data in 2016. In this phase, we showed that PCA-ANFIS model with values of R2 = 0.791, MAE = 0.681, RMSE = 0.904 compared to ANFIS model with values of R2 = 0.705, MAE = 0.827, RMSE = 1.073 has better performance in prediction of the ZCL cases. Actual and predicted maps of ZCL cases in 2016 by both models demonstrated that the high-risk regions of the disease are located in the northeastern, northern parts, and some central rural districts of Golestan province. Sensitivity analysis of the ANFIS model showed that population, vegetation, average wind speed, elevation, and average soil temperature, respectively, are the most significant factors in predicting the ZCL cases. The findings indicated the importance of machine learning (ML) techniques (ANFIS and PCA-ANFIS) in medical geography studies. By using these approaches, with less cost and shorter time, high-risk areas of diseases can be predicted, and the most effective factors on the spatial prediction of diseases can be identified. Public health policymakers can use these useful tools to control and prevent the disease and to allocate resources to disease-prone areas.
Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system; Geospatial information system; Principal component analysis; Statistical analysis; Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis.
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