Sonographic prediction of successful embryonic implantation in in-vitro fertilization and embryo transfer cycle procedures, using a multi-parameter approach

Abstract

Introduction: The success of in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET) cycles depend on maternal age, embryo quality and uterine receptivity. Prediction of embryonic implantation prior to IVF has become crucial in counseling patients due to the cost of failed procedure, in terms of huge financial expenditure, time taken for the procedure, associated health risks and psychological effects following unfulfilled expectation. The objective of this study was therefore to develop a scoring protocol and consequently, a predictive model for a successful embryonic implantation in IVF-ET cycles using maternal demographic, endometrial, ovarian, and hormonal parameters as tools for clinical decision and patient counseling.

Material and methods: The body mass index (BMI), age, endometrial pattern and thickness, antral follicle count, (AFC) and anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) concentration of 295 women between the ages of 18-45 years were evaluated prior to IVF- ET at a fertility clinic in Lagos, Nigeria. The AFC, endometrial pattern and thickness were determined sonographically and the AMH assayed, using ELISA test kits. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the contribution of each parameter to the likelihood of a successful implantation, and a 4 point rating scale was developed based on the relative contribution of each parameter. Scores were then assigned based on the strength of each predictor variable to implantation rates.

Results: Eighteen women that conceived had a full score of 20, while five that failed to conceive scored below 9. Chi square test indicated that endometrial pattern, thickness, age, AFC and AMH are highly significant in predicting embryonic implantation at IVF, while BMI was insignificant (r = -1.831, p = 0.094).

Conclusion: The prediction model demonstrated a positive correlation between the cumulative score and implantation rate. The use of the scoring system could provide a guide to clinicians to predict the success rate of each IVF-ET procedure prior to commencement of treatment.

Implications for practice: The availability of this prediction model provides a counselling tool for physicians to IVF clients which ensures improved confidences level and reduced disappointments from failures in successful implantation and embryonic transfer including its associated financial costs and health risks.

Keywords: Embryonic implantation; In vitro fertilization and embryo transfer; Prediction model; Scoring protocol.