Aim: To develop a microsimulation model to assess the potential health economic impact of software-assisted MRI in detecting disease activity or progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients.
Methods: We develop a simulated decision analytical model based on a hypothetical cohort of RRMS patients to compare a baseline decision-making strategy in which only clinical evolution (relapses and disability progression) factors are used for therapy decisions in MS follow-up, with decision-making strategies involving MRI. In this context, we include comparisons with a visual radiologic assessment of lesion evolution, software-assisted lesion detection, and software-assisted brain volume loss estimation. The model simulates clinical (EDSS transitions, number of relapses) and subclinical (new lesions and brain volume loss) disease progression and activity, modulated by the efficacy profiles of different disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). The simulated decision-making process includes the possibility to escalate from a low efficacy DMT to a high efficacy DMT or to switch between high efficacy DMTs when disease activity is detected. We also consider potential error factors that may occur during decision making, such as incomplete detection of new lesions, or inexact computation of brain volume loss. Finally, differences between strategies in terms of the time spent on treatment while having undetected disease progression/activity, the impact on the patient's quality of life, and costs associated with health status from a US perspective, are reported.
Results: The average time with undetected disease progression while on low efficacy treatment is shortened significantly when using MRI, from around 3 years based on clinical criteria alone, to 2 when adding visual examination of MRI, and down to only 1 year with assistive software. Hence, faster escalation to a high efficacy DMT can be performed when MRI software is added to the radiological reading, which has positive effects in terms of health outcomes. The incremental utility shows average gains of 0.23 to 0.37 QALYs over 10 and 15 years, respectively, when using software-assisted MRI compared to clinical parameters only. Due to long-term health benefits, the average annual costs associated with health status are lower by $1500-$2200 per patient when employing MRI and assistive software.
Conclusions: The health economic burden of MS is high. Using assistive MRI software to detect and quantify lesions and/or brain atrophy has a significant impact on the detection of disease activity, treatment decisions, health outcomes, utilities, and costs in patients with MS.
Keywords: Markov model; brain MRI analysis software; magnetic resonance imaging (MRI); non-evidence of disease activity (NEDA); relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS).