The tunnel collapse is one of the most frequent and harmful geological hazards during the construction of highway rock tunnels. As for reducing the occurrence probability of tunnel collapse, a new dynamic risk assessment methodology for the tunnel collapse was established, which combines the Cloud model (CM), the Membership function, and the Bayesian network (BN). During the preparation phase, tunnel collapse risk factors are identified and an index system is constructed. Then, the proposed novel assessment method is used to evaluate the probability of tunnel collapse risk for on-site construction. The probability of tunnel collapse risk in the dynamic process of construction can provide real-time guidance for tunnel construction. Moreover, a typical case study of the Yutangxi tunnel is performed, which belongs to the Pu-Yan Highway Project (Fujian, China). The results show that the dynamic evaluation model is well validated and applied. The risk value of tunnel collapse in a construction cycle is predicted successfully, and on-site construction is guided to reduce the occurrence of tunnel collapse. Besides, it also proves the feasibility of the dynamic evaluation method and its application potential.
Keywords: Bayesian network; cloud model; dynamic risk assessment; exposure degree; membership function.