Gompertz model in COVID-19 spreading simulation

E Pelinovsky; M Kokoulina; A Epifanova; A Kurkin; O Kurkina; M Tang; E Macau; M Kirillin

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111699

Gompertz model in COVID-19 spreading simulation

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2022 Jan:154:111699. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111699. Epub 2021 Dec 4.

Authors

E Pelinovsky^{1

2}, M Kokoulina³, A Epifanova³, A Kurkin³, O Kurkina³, M Tang⁴, E Macau⁵, M Kirillin²

Affiliations

¹ National Research University - Higher School of Economics, Myasnitskaya st., 20, Moscow 101000, Russian Federation.
² Institute of Applied Physics RAS, Ul'yanov st., 46, Nizhny Novgorod 603950, Russian Federation.
³ Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev, Minin st., 24, Nizhny Novgorod 603950, Russian Federation.
⁴ East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China.
⁵ Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo 04021-001, Brazil.

Abstract

The paper reports on application of the Gompertz model to describe the growth dynamics of COVID-19 cases during the first wave of the pandemic in different countries. Modeling has been performed for 23 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Canada, China, the Netherlands, Norway, Serbia, Turkey, France, Czech Republic, Switzerland, South Korea, USA, Mexico, and Japan. The model parameters are determined by regression analysis based on official World Health Organization data available for these countries. The comparison of the predictions given by the Gompertz model and the simple logistic model (i.e., Verhulst model) is performed allowing to conclude on the higher accuracy of the Gompertz model.

Keywords: COVID-19; Gompertz model; Logistic equation; Mathematical modeling.