Effectiveness of social distancing interventions in containing COVID-19 incidence: International evidence using Kalman filter

Navendu Prakash; Bhavya Srivastava; Shveta Singh; Seema Sharma; Sonali Jain

doi:10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101091

Effectiveness of social distancing interventions in containing COVID-19 incidence: International evidence using Kalman filter

Econ Hum Biol. 2022 Jan:44:101091. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101091. Epub 2021 Dec 2.

Authors

Navendu Prakash¹, Bhavya Srivastava², Shveta Singh³, Seema Sharma⁴, Sonali Jain⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Vishwakarma Bhawan, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India. Electronic address: Navendu.Prakash@dms.iitd.ac.in.
² Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Vishwakarma Bhawan, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India. Electronic address: Bhavya.Srivastava@dms.iitd.ac.in.
³ Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Vishwakarma Bhawan, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India. Electronic address: shvetasingh6@gmail.com.
⁴ Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Vishwakarma Bhawan, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India. Electronic address: seemash@dms.iitd.ac.in.
⁵ Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Vishwakarma Bhawan, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India. Electronic address: sonalijain@dms.iitd.ac.in.

Abstract

The epidemiological literature has widely documented the importance of social distancing interventions in containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the epidemiological measure of virus reproduction, R₀, provides a myopic view of containment, especially when the absolute number of cases is still high. The paper investigates cross-country variations concerning the impact of social distancing interventions on COVID-19 incidence by employing a statistical measure of containment, which models the daily number of cases as a structural time-series, state-space vector. Countries that adopt strict lockdown policies and provide economic support in the form of income augmentations and debt relief improve the response towards the pandemic. Countries like China and South Korea have been most influential in containing the spread of infections. European nations of France, Italy, Spain and the UK are witnessing a second wave of the virus, indicating that re-opening the European economy perhaps has instigated an exponential spread.

Keywords: COVID-19; Economic epidemiology; Kalman filter; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Pandemic; Social distancing.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19*
Communicable Disease Control
Humans
Pandemics
Physical Distancing
SARS-CoV-2