Severity of COVID-19 and adverse long-term outcomes: a retrospective cohort study based on a US electronic health record database

Abstract

Objective: To identify potential risk factors for adverse long-term outcomes (LTOs) associated with COVID-19, using a large electronic health record (EHR) database.

Design: Retrospective cohort study. Patients with COVID-19 were assigned into subcohorts according to most intensive treatment setting experienced. Newly diagnosed conditions were classified as respiratory, cardiovascular or mental health LTOs at >30-≤90 or >90-≤180 days after COVID-19 diagnosis or hospital discharge. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify any association of treatment setting (as a proxy for disease severity) with LTO incidence.

Setting: Optum deidentified COVID-19 EHR dataset drawn from hospitals and clinics across the USA.

Participants: Individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 (N=57 748) from 20 February to 4 July 2020.

Main outcomes: Incidence of new clinical conditions after COVID-19 diagnosis or hospital discharge and the association of treatment setting (as a proxy for disease severity) with their risk of occurrence.

Results: Patients were assigned into one of six subcohorts: outpatient (n=22 788), emergency room (ER) with same-day COVID-19 diagnosis (n=11 633), ER with COVID-19 diagnosis≤21 days before ER visit (n=2877), hospitalisation without intensive care unit (ICU; n=16 653), ICU without ventilation (n=1837) and ICU with ventilation (n=1960). Respiratory LTOs were more common than cardiovascular or mental health LTOs across subcohorts and LTO incidence was higher in hospitalised versus non-hospitalised subcohorts. Patients with the most severe disease were at increased risk of respiratory (risk ratio (RR) 1.86, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.21), cardiovascular (RR 2.65, 95% CI 1.49 to 4.43) and mental health outcomes (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.91) up to 6 months after hospital discharge compared with outpatients.

Conclusions: Patients with severe COVID-19 had increased risk of new clinical conditions up to 6 months after hospital discharge. The extent that treatment setting (eg, ICU) contributed to these conditions is unknown, but strategies to prevent COVID-19 progression may nonetheless minimise their occurrence.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; public health; respiratory infections.