Lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease and life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease according to changes in metabolic syndrome status

Abstract

Background and aims: The relationship between dynamic changes in metabolic syndrome (MetS) status and lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has not been reliably quantified. This study aimed to estimate lifetime risk of CVD and life expectancy with and without CVD according to dynamic MetS status.

Methods and results: Dynamic changes in MetS status were assessed: MetS-free, MetS-chronic, MetS-developed, and MetS-recovery groups. We used Modified Kaplan-Meier method to estimate lifetime risk and used multistate life table method to calculate life expectancy. Participants free of CVD at index ages 35 (n = 40 168), 45 (n = 33 569), and 55 (n = 18 546) years. At index age 35 years, we recorded 1341 CVD events during a median follow-up of 6.1 years. Lifetime risk of 33.9% (95% CI: 26.9%-41.0%) in MetS-recovery group was lower than that of 39.4% (95% CI: 36.1%-42.8%) in MetS-chronic group. Lifetime risk of 37.8% (95% CI: 30.6%-45.1%) in MetS-developed group was higher than that of 26.4% (95% CI: 22.7%-30.0%) in MetS-free group. At index age 35 years, life expectancy free of CVD for MetS-recovery group (44.1 years) was higher than that for MetS-chronic group (38.8 years). Life expectancy free of CVD for MetS-developed group (41.9 years) was lower than that for MetS-free group (46.7 years).

Conclusions: Recovery from MetS was associated with decreased lifetime risk of CVD and a longer life expectancy free of CVD, whereas development of MetS was associated with increased lifetime risk of CVD and a shorter life expectancy free of CVD.

Keywords: Cardiovascular diseases; Life expectancy; Lifetime risk; Metabolic syndrome.