Social Contagion and General Diffusion Models of Adolescent Religious Transitions: A Tutorial, and EMOSA Applications

Abstract

Epidemic Models of the Onset of Social Activities (EMOSA) describe behaviors that spread through social networks. Two social influence methods are represented, social contagion (one-to-one spread) and general diffusion (spread through cultural channels). Past models explain problem behaviors-smoking, drinking, sexuality, and delinquency. We provide review, and a tutorial (including examples). Following, we present new EMOSA models explaining changes in adolescent and young adult religious participation. We fit the model to 10 years of data from the 1997 U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Innovations include a three-stage bi-directional model, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation, graphical innovations, and empirical validation. General diffusion dominated rapid reduction in church attendance during adolescence; both diffusion and social contagion explained church attendance stability in early adulthood.

Keywords: Bayesian estimation; adolescent religious involvement; diffusion models; emosa models; nonlinear dynamic models; social contagion models; social influence.