Using observed incidence to calibrate the transmission level of a mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics including case management and importation

Clara Champagne; Maximilian Gerhards; Justin Lana; Bernardo García Espinosa; Christina Bradley; Oscar González; Justin M Cohen; Arnaud Le Menach; Michael T White; Emilie Pothin

doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108750

Using observed incidence to calibrate the transmission level of a mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics including case management and importation

Math Biosci. 2022 Jan:343:108750. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108750. Epub 2021 Dec 7.

Affiliations

¹ Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4002, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4001, Switzerland. Electronic address: clara.champagne@swisstph.ch.
² Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4002, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4001, Switzerland.
³ Clinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA.
⁴ Ministerio de Salud de Panama, Calle culebra, Edificio 265 del Ministerio de Salud, Corregimiento de Ancón, Panama.
⁵ Institut Pasteur, Université de Paris, G5 Épidémiologie et Analyse des Maladies Infectieuses, Département de Santé Globale, Paris, F-75015, France.
⁶ Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4002, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4001, Switzerland; Clinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA.

Abstract

In this work, we present a simple and flexible model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics which can be easily combined with routinely collected data on local and imported case counts to quantify transmission intensity and simulate control strategies. This model extends the model from White et al. (2016) by including case management interventions targeting liver-stage or blood-stage parasites, as well as imported infections. The endemic steady state of the model is used to derive a relationship between the observed incidence and the transmission rate in order to calculate reproduction numbers and simulate intervention scenarios. To illustrate its potential applications, the model is used to calculate local reproduction numbers in Panama and identify areas of sustained malaria transmission that should be targeted by control interventions.

Keywords: Malaria model; Panama; Plasmodium vivax model; Plasmodium vivax radical cure.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Case Management
Humans
Incidence
Malaria, Vivax* / epidemiology
Malaria, Vivax* / parasitology
Malaria, Vivax* / prevention & control
Models, Theoretical
Plasmodium falciparum
Plasmodium vivax*