How an election can be safely planned and conducted during a pandemic: Decision support based on a discrete event model

PLoS One. 2021 Dec 9;16(12):e0261016. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261016. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

In 2020, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused major limitations for any aspect of social life and in specific for all events that require a gathering of people. While most events of this kind can be postponed or cancelled, democratic elections are key elements of any democratic regime and should be upheld if at all possible. Consequently, proper planning is required to establish the highest possible level of safety to both voters and scrutineers. In this paper, we present the novel and innovative way how the municipal council and district council elections in Vienna were planned and conducted using an discrete event simulation model. Key target of this process was to avoid queues in front of polling stations to reduce the risk of related infection clusters. In cooperation with a hygiene expert, we defined necessary precautions that should be met during the election in order to avoid the spread of COVID-19. In a next step, a simulation model was established and parametrized and validated using data from previous elections. Furthermore, the planned conditions were simulated to see whether excessive queues in front of any polling stations could form, as these could on the one hand act as an infection herd, and on the other hand, turn voters away. Our simulation identified some polling stations where long queues could emerge. However, splitting up these electoral branches resulted in a smooth election across all of Vienna. Looking back, the election did not lead to a significant increase of COVID-19 incidences. Therefore, it can be concluded that careful planning led to a safe election, despite the pandemic.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Austria / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • Decision Making
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pandemics
  • Politics*
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification

Grants and funding

The authors were funded by Stadt Wien, Magistratsabteilung 62 (“City of Vienna, Municipal Department 62”). The work within this paper was conducted with the research projects CIDS, funded by FFG within the Emergency-Call Coronavirus 2020 (project number: 881665) and the project ReproHealth, funded by FFG within the Call Research Partnerships (4th Call, project number: 871798). This statement is valid for all authors. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.