Crop traits enabling yield gains under more frequent extreme climatic events

Haoliang Yan; Matthew Tom Harrison; Ke Liu; Bin Wang; Puyu Feng; Shah Fahad; Holger Meinke; Rui Yang; De Li Liu; Sotirios Archontoulis; Isaiah Huber; Xiaohai Tian; Jianguo Man; Yunbo Zhang; Meixue Zhou

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152170

Crop traits enabling yield gains under more frequent extreme climatic events

Sci Total Environ. 2022 Feb 20:808:152170. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152170. Epub 2021 Dec 5.

Authors

Haoliang Yan¹, Matthew Tom Harrison², Ke Liu³, Bin Wang⁴, Puyu Feng⁵, Shah Fahad⁶, Holger Meinke⁷, Rui Yang¹, De Li Liu⁴, Sotirios Archontoulis⁸, Isaiah Huber⁸, Xiaohai Tian¹, Jianguo Man⁹, Yunbo Zhang¹⁰, Meixue Zhou²

Affiliations

¹ Engineering Research Center of Ecology and Agricultural Use of Wetland, College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, Hubei, China.
² Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, Burnie 7250, Tasmania, Australia.
³ Engineering Research Center of Ecology and Agricultural Use of Wetland, College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, Hubei, China; Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, Burnie 7250, Tasmania, Australia. Electronic address: ke.liu@utas.edu.au.
⁴ New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agriculture Institute, Wagga Wagga, New South Wales 2650, Australia.
⁵ College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.
⁶ Hainan Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Tropical Bioresource, College of Tropical Crops, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, Hainan, China; Department of Agronomy, The University of Haripur, Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 22620, Pakistan.
⁷ University of Tasmania, Hobart 7001, Tasmania, Australia.
⁸ Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, United States.
⁹ MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China.
¹⁰ Engineering Research Center of Ecology and Agricultural Use of Wetland, College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, Hubei, China. Electronic address: yzhang@yangtzeu.edu.cn.

PMID: 34875326
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152170

Abstract

Climate change (CC) in central China will change seasonal patterns of agricultural production through increasingly frequent extreme climatic events (ECEs). Breeding climate-resilient wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes may mitigate adverse effects of ECEs on crop productivity. To reveal crop traits conducive to long-term yield improvement in the target population of environments, we created 8,192 virtual genotypes with contrasting but realistic ranges of phenology, productivity and waterlogging tolerance. Using these virtual genotypes, we conducted a genotype (G) by environment (E) by management (M) factorial analysis (G×E×M) using locations distributed across the entire cereal cropping zone in mid-China. The G×E×M invoked locally-specific sowing dates under future climates that were premised on shared socioeconomic pathways SSP5-8.5, with a time horizon centred on 2080. Across the simulated adaptation landscape, productivity was primarily driven by yield components and phenology (average grain yield increase of 6-69% across sites with optimal combinations of these traits). When incident solar radiation was not limiting carbon assimilation, ideotypes with higher grain yields were characterised by earlier flowering, higher radiation-use efficiency and larger maximum kernel size. At sites with limited solar radiation, crops required longer growing periods to realise genetic yield potential, although higher radiation-use efficiency and larger maximum kernel size were again prospective traits enabling higher rates of yield gains. By 2080, extreme waterlogging stress in some regions of mid-China will impact substantially on productivity, with yield penalties of up to 1,010 kg ha^-1. Ideotypes with optimal G×M could mitigate yield penalty caused by waterlogging by up to 15% under future climates. These results help distil promising crop trait by best management practice combinations that enable higher yields and robust adaptation to future climates and more frequent extreme climatic events, including flash flooding and soil waterlogging.

Keywords: Climate change; Crop model; Model parameters; Waterlogging stress; Wheat ideotypes.

MeSH terms

Climate Change
Crops, Agricultural*
Edible Grain
Plant Breeding*
Prospective Studies
Triticum