Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil

PLoS One. 2021 Dec 7;16(12):e0260610. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260610. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

This article proposes a study of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and the efficacy of public policies in Brazil. Using both aggregated (from large Internet companies) and fine-grained (from Departments of Motor Vehicles) mobility data sources, our work sheds light on the effect of mobility on the pandemic situation in the Brazilian territory. Our main contribution is to show how mobility data, particularly fine-grained ones, can offer valuable insights into virus propagation. For this, we propose a modification in the SENUR model to add mobility information, evaluating different data availability scenarios (different information granularities), and finally, we carry out simulations to evaluate possible public policies. In particular, we conduct a case study that shows, through simulations of hypothetical scenarios, that the contagion curve in several Brazilian cities could have been milder if the government had imposed mobility restrictions soon after reporting the first case. Our results also show that if the government had not taken any action and the only safety measure taken was the population's voluntary isolation (out of fear), the time until the contagion peak for the first wave would have been postponed, but its value would more than double.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / pathology
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • Databases, Factual
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Movement*
  • Pandemics
  • Public Policy
  • Quarantine
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification

Grants and funding

HSR acknowledges funding support from the Pró-Reitoria de Pesquisa (PRPq) of the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) for the publication costs. HSR is funded by grant #2020/05121-4, São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). AFFL is funded by grant #2018/23064-8, São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). HSR is funded by grant 311750/2018-4, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, CNPq. ETCC and ICP hold scholarships from the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, CAPES. PHB holds a scholarship from the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, CNPq. FM is funded by grant APQ-02337-21, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais, FAPEMIG. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.