Lactate improves the predictive ability of the National Early Warning Score 2 in the emergency department

Abstract

Aims: The aim of this study was to compare the ability to predict 2-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day in-hospital mortality of lactate vs the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) vs the arithmetic sum of the NEWS2 plus the numerical value of lactate (NEWS2-L).

Methods: This was a prospective, multicentric, emergency department delivery, pragmatic cohort study. To determine the predictive capacity of lactate, we calculated the NEWS2 and NEWS2-L in adult patients (aged >18 years) transferred with high priority by ambulance to the emergency department in five hospitals of Castilla y Leon (Spain) between November 1, 2019, and September 30, 2020. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of each of the scales was calculated in terms of mortality for every time frame (2, 7, 14, and 30 days). We determined the cut-off point of each scale that offered highest sensitivity and specificity using the Youden index.

Results: A total of 1716 participants were included, and the in-hospital mortality rates at 2, 7, 14, and 30 days were of 7.8% (134 cases), 11.6% (200 cases), 14.2% (243 cases), and 17.2% (295 cases), respectively. The best cut-off point determined in the NEWS2 was 6.5 points (sensitivity of 97% and specificity of 59%), and for lactate, the cut-off point was 3.3 mmol/L (sensitivity of 79% and specificity of 72%). Finally, the combined NEWS2-L showed a cut-off point of 11.7 (sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 85%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the NEWS2, lactate, and NEWS2-L in the validation cohort for 2-day mortality was 0.889, 0.856, and 0.923, respectively (p<0.001 in all cases).

Conclusions: The new score generated, NEWS2-L, obtained better statistical results than its components (NEWS2 and lactate) separately.

Keywords: Early death; Emergency department; Lactate; NEWS2-L; National Early Warning Score 2.