Development, validation, and visualization of a web-based nomogram for predicting the incidence of leiomyosarcoma patients with distant metastasis

Abstract

Background: Leiomyosarcoma (LMS) is one of the most common soft tissue sarcomas. LMS is prone to distant metastasis (DM), and patients with DM have a poor prognosis.

Aim: In this study, we investigated the risk factors of DM in LMS patients and the prognostic factors of LMS patients with DM.

Methods and results: LMS patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database. Patients were randomly divided into the training set and validation set. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed, and a nomogram was established. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram. Based on the nomogram, a web-based nomogram is established. The univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to assess the prognostic risk factors of LMS patients with DM. Eventually, 2184 patients diagnosed with LMS were enrolled, randomly divided into the training set (n = 1532, 70.14%) and validation set (n = 652, 29.86%). Race, primary site, grade, T stage, and tumor size were correlated with DM incidence in LMS patients. The AUC of the nomogram is 0.715 in training and 0.713 in the validation set. The calibration curve and DCA results showed that the nomogram performed well in predicting the DM risk. A web-based nomogram was established to predict DM's risk in LMS patients (https://wenn23.shinyapps.io/riskoflmsdm/). Epithelioid LMS, in uterus, older age, giant tumor, multiple organ metastasis, without surgery, and chemotherapy had a poor prognosis.

Conclusions: The established web-based nomogram (https://wenn23.shinyapps.io/riskoflmsdm/) is an accurate and personalized tool to predict the risks of LMS developing DM. Advanced age, larger tumor, multiple organ metastasis, epithelioid type, uterine LMS, no surgery, and no chemotherapy were associated with poor prognosis in LMS patients with DM.

Keywords: SEER program; distant metastasis; leiomyosarcoma; overall survival; web-based nomogram.