Objectives: to compare three injuries indicators to establish which are less affected by underreporting and therefore best suited for the monitoring of the occupational injuries time trend during economic crisis.
Design: open cohort.
Setting and participants: a national sample of employees in the private sector, blue collars, males aged 15-64 years, extracted from the Work History Italian Panel-Healt archive, which combines data about firms and employee from the National Social Security Institute (Inps) and occupational injuries data from the Italian National Institute for Insurance against Accidents at Work (Inail).
Main outcome measures: annual injuries rates for the period 2001-2012 classified according to three severity definitions: • serious injuries according to the prognosis (IGP); • serious Injuries according to the type of lesion (IGL); • minor injuries. Time trends and their changes during the economic crisis (2008-2013) were analysed through negative binomial regression models, stratified by country of origin, macroarea of work, firm size, and economic activity.
Results: IGP rates decreased more than IGL and minor injuries rates during the economic crisis, highlighting their greater association with the economic cycle. Negatives and significant trend changes were observed in some subgroups: in manufacturing, among workers from high developed countries and Moroccans, in the Northern and Central macroareas of Italy, and in larger firms.
Conclusions: variations in injuries rates were not so much influenced by the underreporting of injuries as by the changes in the working conditions following the economic crisis. To accurately monitor the injuries time trends, it is recommended to report at the same time at least one indicator based on minor injuries and one based on serious injuries.
Keywords: Economic recession; Italy; Longitudinal study; Occupational accidents; Underreporting.