Spatial and dynamic effects of air pollution on under-five children's lower respiratory infections: an evidence from China 2006 to 2017

Abstract

Air pollution has been a deeply concerned issue posing an immediate and profound threat to human's lower respiratory health in China. The health of children under 5 years old, regarded as a key index of public health progress in a country, is closely related to the long-term human capital development. Hence, it is vital to investigate the potential association between air pollution and children's lower respiratory health outcomes and to explore related policy implications regarding the public health and the pollution regulation. As air pollutants diffuse across adjacent regions rather easily, considering the spatial spillover effect is meaningful in course of acquiring the aforementioned association. Based on the proposed province-level panel dataset of China during 2006-2017, this study constructs a dynamic spatial panel Durbin model to investigate the impact of air pollution on under-five children's lower respiratory infections. As a result, (1) both air pollution and children's respiratory health have obvious spatial spillover effects, and the latter has an outstanding characteristic of path dependence in time. (2) In the short term, air pollution presents significant negative impact on children's respiratory health, while in the long run, the impact decreases dramatically. (3) Regional comparison indicates that children in the western China are the most susceptible to air pollution followed by children in the central and eastern regions. (4) Other control variables have significant and varying impacts both in the short and long term. Particularly, this paper proves the existence of "siphon effect" in children healthcare system in China. From a broader and more comprehensive perspective, this study provides effective and constructive basis for policy making, in favor of improving children's health under air pollution and promoting sustainable development in China.

Keywords: Air pollution; Children’s respiratory health; Dynamic spatial Durbin model; Lower respiratory infections; Spatial spillover effects; Time-lag effects; Under-five children.