Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD) is a ubiquitous endemic disease in most bovine populations that causes a negative economic impact on cattle production systems. However, true herd and individual prevalence in Chile have not been estimated based on statistical and epidemiological considerations and uncertainty regarding the infection's extension at animal and herd levels. In addition, the risk factors that can influence how the infection has spread among the cattle premises have not been assessed yet. Therefore, the study aimed to estimate true herd and animal prevalence of active BVDV infection in pasture-based dairy herds and to evaluate risk factors potentially associated with the status of herds and the within-herd prevalence, using a Bayesian approach. A cross-sectional study was performed over a random stratified (proportional to herd size) sample of one-hundred and fifty dairy herds selected in Chile's two leading dairy regions (Region de Los Ríos and Region de Los Lagos). We obtained 12.311 blood samples from lactating cows, but 4.998 randomly selected samples were processed due to budget constraints. For estimating BVDV Herd Prevalence (HP), a herd was considered infected if at least one positive animal to Ag-ELISA was found. In addition, a survey was completed on each farm, aiming to collect information to assess the influence of some variables over the state of the herds; both estimations were obtained using a Bayesian approach. True herd prevalence and true individual prevalence of BVDV active infection were estimated at 77 % and 3.5 % respectively, no significant differences were found between characteristics like herd size, location, vaccination, etc. Open herds and herds that mix herd categories are more likely to have higher BVDV prevalence.
Keywords: Bayesian; Bovine viral diarrhea virus; True prevalence-dairy herds.
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