Spatiotemporal dynamic differences of energy-related CO2 emissions and the related driven factors in six regions of China during two decades

Abstract

Carbon neutrality lays out a grand blueprint for carbon emission reduction and climate governance in China. How to reduce energy consumption is the key to achieving this goal. The economic development and energy consumption show a very large gap at the provincial level, and this paper divides China into six regions (North, Northeast, East, Mid-South, Southwest, and Northwest) and analyzes the dynamic changes and reveals the driving factors that have affected CO₂ emission changes from 1997 to 2017. Then, the driving forces including energy intensity, energy structure, energy efficiency, economic activity, and population scale were discussed employing the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) based on provincial panel data. The results show that CO₂ emissions from energy consumption show an upward trend, from 4145 Mt in 1997 to 13,250 Mt in 2017, with an annual average growth rate of 1.06%; coal consumption is the main source of CO₂ emission. The regions with the highest proportion of CO₂ emissions are the East and North, which account for 50% of total emissions. China's CO₂ emissions from energy consumption, coal consumption, and output have shown significant spatial autocorrelation at the provincial scale. According to coal consumption, energy consumption CO₂ emissions are divided into three stages: phase I (1997-2002), the increase in CO₂ emissions in six regions was attributed to significant and positive impacts of energy intensity, economic activity, and population scale, the effects of which exceeded those of the energy structure and energy efficiency; phase II (2003-2012), the economic activity effect on CO₂ emissions was highest in the East region, followed by the North and Mid-South regions; phase III (2013-2017), the East, Mid-South, and Southwest regions of China were dominated by the positive effects of energy intensity, economic activity, and population scale. The major driver of CO₂ emissions is economic activity; the energy efficiency effect is an important inhibitory factor. Regional economic development and energy consumption in China are unbalanced; we conclude that differentiated emission reduction measures should be of particular concern for policymakers.

Keywords: Carbon neutrality; Coal consumption; Differentiation; Economic activity; LMDI; Moran’s I; Reduction policy.