The Dynamical Interplay of Collective Attention, Awareness and Epidemics Spreading in the Multiplex Social Networks During COVID-19

Abstract

Leveraging social and communication technologies, we can digitally observe that the collective attention typically exhibits a heterogeneous structure. It shows that people's interests are organized in clusters around different topics, but the rising of an extraordinary emergency event, as the coronavirus disease epidemics, channels the people's attention into a more homogenized structure, shifting it as triggered by a non-random collective process. The connectedness of networked individuals, on multiple social levels, impacts on the attention, representing a tuning element of different behavioural outcomes, changing the awareness diffusion enough to produce effects on epidemics spreading. We propose a mathematical framework to model the interplay between the collective attention and the co-evolving processes of awareness diffusion, modelled as a social contagion phenomenon, and epidemic spreading on weighted multiplex networks. Our proposed modeling approach structures a systematically understanding as a social network marker of interdependent collective dynamics through the introduction of the multiplex dimension of both networked individuals and topics, quantifying the role of human-related factors, as homophily, network properties, and heterogeneity. We introduce a data-driven approach by integrating different types of data, digitally traced as user-generated data from Twitter and Google Trends, in response to an extraordinary emergency event as coronavirus disease. Our findings demonstrate how the proposed model allows us to quantify the reaction of the collective attention, proving that it can represent a social predictive marker of the awareness dynamics, unveiling the impact on epidemic spreading, for a timely crisis response planning. Simulations results shed light on the coherence between the data-driven approach and the proposed analytical model.

Keywords: COVID-19; Multiplex networks; collective attention; collective awareness; epidemics spreading; social contagion; social networks.