Risk factors and spatio-temporal patterns of livestock anthrax in Khuvsgul Province, Mongolia

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 19;16(11):e0260299. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260299. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Anthrax is a worldwide zoonotic disease. Anthrax has long been a public health and socio-economic issue in Mongolia. Presently, there is no spatial information on carcass burial sites as a potential hazard of future anthrax outbreaks and possible risk factors associated with anthrax occurrences in Mongolia. Here, we analyze retrospective data (1986-2015) on the disposal sites of livestock carcasses to describe historical spatio-temporal patterns of livestock anthrax in Khuvsgul Province, which showed the highest anthrax incidence rate in Mongolia. From the results of spatial mean and standard deviational ellipse analyses, we found that the anthrax spatial distribution in livestock did not change over the study period, indicating a localized source of exposure. The multi-distance spatial cluster analysis showed that carcass sites distributed in the study area are clustered. Using kernel density estimation analysis on carcass sites, we identified two anthrax hotspots in low-lying areas around the south and north regions. Notably, this study disclosed a new hotspot in the northern part that emerged in the last decade of the 30-year study period. The highest proportion of cases was recorded in cattle, whose prevalence per area was highest in six districts (i.e., Murun, Chandmani-Undur, Khatgal, Ikh-Uul, Tosontsengel, and Tsagaan-Uul), suggesting that vaccination should prioritize cattle in these districts. Furthermore, size of outbreaks was influenced by the annual summer mean air temperature of Khuvsgul Province, probably by affecting the permafrost freeze-thawing activity.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Anthrax / etiology*
  • Cattle
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Livestock / microbiology*
  • Mongolia
  • Permafrost / microbiology
  • Public Health / methods
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Seasons
  • Spatial Analysis
  • Temperature
  • Vaccination / methods
  • Zoonoses / etiology*

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) in Japan and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science under Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research to Hideaki Higashi (Grant Number 17H01679 and 18K19436) and Yoshikazu Furuta (Grant Number 18K14672); Japan Initiative for Global Research Network on Infectious Diseases (J-GRID) to Hideaki Higashi and Yoshikazu Furuta (Grant Number JP19fm0108008); World-leading Innovative and Smart Education (WISE) Grant-in Aid and The International Priority Graduate Programs scholarship (MEXT) for Graduate Students to Tuvshinzaya Zorigt; and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to Tuvshinzaya Zorigt and Hideaki Higashi. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.